4/22/08

MARKET COMMENTARYU.S. Treasuries fell, pushing two- year yields to almost the highest level in three months, as traders increased bets the Federal Reserve may be done lowering interest rates. Two-year notes declined for a seventh day before a planned $30 billion auction of the debt tomorrow. The Treasury Department will sell $8 billion of five-year Treasury Inflation Protected Securities today. The benchmark two-year Treasury's yield rose 3 basis points, or 0.03 percentage point, to 2.2 percent at 8:46 a.m. in New York, according to bond broker BGCantor Market Data. The price of the 1.75 percent security due in March 2010 fell 2/32, or 63 cents per $1,000 face amount, to 99 6/32. Ten-year yields rose 1 basis point to 3.74 percent. The yield on two-year notes, most sensitive to the outlook for interest rates, rose as traders see a 14 percent chance the Fed will keep its benchmark rate for overnight loans between banks at 2.25 percent on April 30, up from no chance a week ago. The odds are 86 percent the central bank will lower its target rate to 2 percent this month, futures on the Chicago Board of Trade show. A month ago, most of the bets were for a cut to 1.75 percent. The Fed has lowered its target rate from 5.25 percent since September as banks and securities firms around the world reported about $288 billion in asset writedowns and credit losses since the beginning of 2007.

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